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Future, Risks and Opportunities

Güray ALPAR
01 Ocak 2021 23:45
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The difference between the desired state and the actual state is Risk. However, it is important to know that risks also bring opportunities. Again, what is at risk for some is an opportunity to build new worlds for another.

Prophecy and Prediction

Prophecy is trying to know ahead of time that an event can happen. On the other hand, prediction, in a quite different sense, is to predict a future event based on reason, intuition, or some data, using the available information and past experiences. The limited information available or the lack of experience of the person making the forecast are the most important factors for the results to be different than expected. This is why the predictions are often incorrect.

Risk Assessment

Unless a reverse will, risk is a danger of exposure. It is possible to express this risk step by step according to its degree. Another point to consider here is the effect of risk. This can be extremely low, low, medium, high, or very high. If the risk is high and degree of effect is the same than if possible, this risk should be eliminated.

In an assessment accordingly, the regions that are strongly expected to be conflict and social events in 2021 can be shown on a map as follows.

Regions, Where Conflict and Social Events are Expected in 2021

This assessment and estimation made in line with the available information include the possible regions, and it is undoubtedly possible that similar events may occur in other regions. Again, a risk assessment for these crisis regions can be done as follows.

Apart from that, it is possible to evaluate the major risks and opportunities that may occur in the upcoming period as follows.

The mutated Covid-19 outbreak seems to continue for a while

It is certain that, implement measures against epidemics in a timely manner will have an advantage. In this sense, it is especially important not only to keep the connections open where they are needed, but also to close them quickly in unnecessary areas and places that create danger. Most importantly, crisis management and experts to manage this crisis.

The epidemic will bring changes not only in the military balance of power, but also in the economic field

Currently, among the strongest economies in the world, the USA ranks first with $ 21 trillion and China ranks second with $ 14 trillion. The Chinese economy, which contracted by 6.8% at the beginning of 2020, managed to overcome this quickly with the measures it took. With its economy growing 3.2% in the second quarter and 4.9% in the third quarter, it will be the only country in the world to achieve growth despite the crisis, according to the IMF. Although the US economy seems to be in a better condition, it is a fact that China is rapidly catching up with the US with its continuous growth performance. Obviously, it will also turn in favor of the economic and political sphere that survived the crisis first and also is going to mobilize production networks again.

Economic recession will trigger social events in some countries

While the epidemic has given the world economy its lowest performance since the 2008 crisis, it will also create problems such as in food shortage and basic necessities in some countries in the coming period. Deficiencies in some goods and services, especially unemployment and food shortages, will cause social events in some countries if measures are not taken in advance. The psychological effects of long-term closures, mistakes in the reorganization of human relations, losing their job, changing hands of wealth, imbalance in income distribution and the unfair practices created by this will be the main factors that trigger these events. In addition, it will be seen that societies that cooperate and share by putting the human factor forward will survive by adapting more easily to the new era.

Environment and climate security will be as important as military and economic security

Planning and implementing security measures for the environment and climate change, which is sure to increase gradually in the coming years and will affect our lives from food to water, has gained importance. If this awareness is not gained and the necessary measures are not taken, it will be inevitable to experience natural disasters, hunger, thirst, migrations and even more social conflicts.

Cyber ​​Attacks will increase, cyber defense measures will gain importance

In May 2020, US intelligence announced that it was investigating a cyberattacks from China. At the end of the year, it was again announced that the US systems were under a massive cyberattack that threatened national security and could not be determined from where it came from. The US Cyber ​​and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which issued a warning message, interpreted the attacks as complex and "serious danger". It will take time to estimate the extent of the damage. Moreover, these attacks seem to continue in the upcoming period.

On the other hand the new US President John Biden’s statement about the attacks was interesting. “There is a lot we don’t know about the attacks. There is no evidence that it is under control. We don't know the extent of the damage”. The US has to bear the consequences of its inability to follow the rising powers in the world, especially China.

US military power seems to face more and more challenges

Perhaps Kissenger seeing these days, had said in his book: "Every international order must eventually face the influence of two trends that challenge its integrity: either a redefinition of legitimacy or a significant shift in the balance of power".

In the "Triple Strategy" document prepared by the US Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps, "Many things have changed after 2015. It is now difficult for us to gain unlimited access to the oceans in times of conflict. We lost our superiority on the high seas against China and Russia. " This description means more than just the confession of the visible. Balances are changing and it is well known that the gap in the balance of power will be filled by the forces that had prepared for them according to the developing situations in the short and medium-term.

In fact, the US had consumed, by spending its power unnecessarily for years behind the fake enemies. Now it is clearly seen that the USA, which seemed to be the only big power in the world after the Cold War Period, has now begun to face attacks on different fronts.

It is possible that if action is not taken, conflicts and social events in the USA will increase. On the other hand, it is understood that the US will lose its superiority against the increasing military power of China and Russia.

In the coming period, Turkey will strengthen its position as a regional power

Turkey is no longer as before. This fact now makes itself felt better. Seeing this reality means understanding the region and what is happening in these regions. Undoubtedly, in these geographies, The world has witnessed the changes in many areas in the last term and Turkey will further strengthen its position as a regional power. Turkey, with historical and cultural ties and inovative technologies, has started to create security belts in its geography. Time showed everyone how Turkey is an important country and none of the projects in this region can be succeed without Turkey. In the upcoming period, mainly European Unions, a lot of countries will want to improve relations with Turkey.
it is unthinkable for everything to be perfect and the problems to be solved at once. Despite, it is now recognized that efforts to peace and stability in the immediate vicinity of Turkey have started to yield results in the near future. In the long run, these efforts will undoubtedly provide peace and prosperity in the region. Most important of all, no country should be worried and afraid of all these efforts of Turkey’s that serve peace and prosperity, if there is no malice.