There is not democracy in Kyrgyzstan in its real sense and the opposing powers are not given an opportunity to state their opinions normally. For the same reason, the social problems such as injustice, corruption, and poverty are widespread in the country. Particularly a solution to the problems as a consequence of imbalanced development of the northern and southern regions of Kyrgyzstan has not been found yet. And the incident that triggered overthrowing the President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in 2005 started in the poor southern region of the country. The last incident occurred in the northern region and it may signify the spread of dissatisfaction in Kyrgyzstan to the whole country. In this context, because the President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was not strong enough in administration, his administration became instable.

There are corruption allegations against the Bakiyevs and it caught the attention of the society. The public support for Bakiyev has gradually decreased. Another problem with the administration in Kyrgyzstan is the oppressive policy of the administration against the opposing party. In this year since March, there have been operations to arrest the opponents in the whole country. Because the arrested people have been party administrators, independent TV reporters, and human right activists, it has caused tension in the society.

Economic problems and unjust sharing during privatization are among the causes. In Kyrgyzstan, which has a weak economy and survives with the foreign support and the income in return for their permission for the existence of foreign powers in the country, the international crisis destroyed the fragile economy of the country, as well. As it is understood from dumping and tax deduction demands of the opposing party, one of the reasons of the outbreak of this incident is economy. The Kyrgyz, who were working in Russia and neighboring countries owing to international economic crisis, went back to their country; could not find jobs; and therefore it started to cause many social problems. In recent years many families lost their main source of income; the standard of living decreased; and consequently the incidents soared.

Another economic reason is the unjust sharing during privatization. According to the demands of the opposing party, the sectors such as energy, telecommunication, and network should be socialized. According to the opposing party, the socialization of the state resources in Kyrgyzstan has made the capitalists rich; the lives of people are getting harder because the capitalists are only after money; and the people no longer have the power to endure these.

Another reason is the balance of power policy pursued by the small states caught among the great powers. In order to preserve the security and stability of the state, Kyrgyzstan allowed the states such as Russia and China to have a balance of power in the country thinking that this would lessen the pressure of these states in Kyrgyzstan. After September 11 attacks the USA forces also started to take part in Kyrgyzstan. Today there is Manas Air Base, where the US army is deployed, around the capital city, Bishkek. And Kant, which is a Russian base, is 20 km away from Bishkek.  

Although China has not deployed its military forces in Kyrgyzstan, it tries to increase the cooperation between the permanent military forces and other security forces in terms of the fight against terrorism with Kyrgyzstan and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, the interests of these powers in the Middle Asia and Kyrgyzstan are different and thus they sometimes have a clash of interest. For instance, in February 2009, the administration in Kyrgyzstan took $ 2 million standby credit and got $ 150 million economic aid package from Russia.

The administration in Kyrgyzstan announced that the USA would close the air base in Kyrgyzstan. However, Kyrgyzstan could not take $2 million standby credit from Russia. These developments naturally disappointed the administration in Kyrgyzstan. Under these circumstances, the administration in Kyrgyzstan started to improve the bilateral relations with the USA by bargaining. The clash of interests among the super powers, like this, causes political and social problems in Kyrgyzstan.

Before the incidents in 2005, the USA had planned to deploy the E-3 surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft (AWACS) in order to have more military power in Kyrgyzstan. It caught the attention of Russia and China. At the beginning of this year, the USA planned to establish a military training center in the southern Kyrgyzstan and the USA would strengthen its power in Kyrgyzstan together with the military air base in the north. It, naturally, caught the attention of Russia. Since March, there have been harsh criticisms about the corruption of the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev in the Russian media. As a response, Kyrgyzstan protested against the defamation campaign against the family of the president by the Russian media by sending a diplomatic note to Russia. Therefore, the overthrow of the current President Bakiyev is in favor of Russia for now. It is also indirectly in favor of China’s interests in the region. After all, the President Kurmanbek Bakiyev shared the common destiny with the overthrown President Askar Akayev and escaped from the capital; yet unlike Askar Akayev he did not go to Moscow.

In order to preserve the power, first of all the opposing party have to make the rebels accept their capacity of administration. During the rebellions in 2005, Kurmanbek Bakiyev seemed respectable and capable. The opponents’ keeping their power also depends upon whether the President Kurmanbek Bakiyev who left Bishkek and his team will come back or not. The overthrown President Askar Akayev could not come back after he left Bishkek in 2005 and some of his men accepted Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s leadership. Ultimately, whether the rebels will be supported by foreign powers or not will shape the process. The bloody change in administration in Kyrgyzstan mostly concerns the states sucfh as the USA, Russia, and China. How the reactions of the states, which have been in competition for power for many years, will be for the new situations may change the destiny of the new administration indirectly.