After swap deal Netanyahu stated his grief by releasing of terrorists who killed Israel civilians and didn’t serve out their full sentence. He said that this agreement was not easy for him but he had to make a decision. He added that we will continue to fight with terrorism, any released terrorist who returns the terrorism- his blood is upon his head. Despite Netanyahu’s words at the Tel Nov Military Base to prove determination fighting against terrorism and happiness of Shalit’s family we cannot say that all Israelis are content by swap. While Netanyahu was aiming gaining prestige, many close relatives of victims of prisoners’ attacks protested the swap decision. Nevertheless, specialist says that if there is not an important suicide bomb attack people won’t think about undesirable results of swap. Indeed, after implementing first phase of treaty it seems Netanyahu won’t lose in internal policy because of the swap.

 

Opposition leader Tzipi Livni (from Kadima party) broke her silence Sunday over the Gilad Shalit’s prisoner exchange which saw the release of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in return for the abducted soldier, stating that the deal “legitimizes and strengthens” Hamas. She said Israel must coordinate the second stage of prisoner exchange (550) with Palestinian President Abbas.

 

 

The strongest assertion which is also took place in Sharq al Avsad is that Netanyahu wanted to thwart Abbas’s step at UN which is seeking statehood for Palestine. By this purpose, Netanyahu agreed to Hamas and raised up Hamas’s prestige which was fading away after Mahmud Abbas’s important venture at UN. It is also spoken that Israeli side didn’t want to wait for Egyptian elections to put an end to Shalit’s captivity. Probability of Muslim Brotherhood victory was disturbing Israel. Namely a HAMAS who braces up by a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt would made Shalit’s handing over to Israel more difficult. So we can say that Netanyahu government wanted the deal before elections in Egypt to ban undesirable results for Shalit.  

 

According to optimistic dimension which can bring peace to the region Israel is seeking good relations with Egypt. It was noticed that the second fearful person during Egypt revolution after Hosni Mubarak was Netanyahu. Israel had to preserve getting on well with Egypt and it doesn’t seem possible to preserve good relations with new Egypt by maintaining aggressive policies in Gaza. And according to this idea we can hope more agreeable stance from Israel.

 

 

After the deal, Khalid Mishaal announced the swap as a national achievement. Mishaal was right, as this swap treaty has been one of the most profitable job for Arabs since 1948.

 

Hamas shot two birds by one stone. First of all, managing to put into shades Abbas step for statehood was too much important. Because statehood bit by Abbas pushed Hamas to background. Welcoming ceremonies for prisoners turned to show of force of Hamas. The second crucial point is Hamas proved that they can be agreed. Hamas made an agreement with Israel and obey the rules. This case will break Israel’s pretext to show Hamas as irreconcilable. Above releasing 1077 prisoners, everyone can admit that forcing Israel to recognize Hamas in practice is a big victory for Hamas.

 

People who close relatives of prisoners put into verbs their desire to see new Shalits. Because without capturing an Israeli solider it would not be possible to be gathered their relatives. It was exactly Hamas’ thoughts too. Hamas strongly emphasized that the victory is a result of resistance. Everyone knows that Hamas’ resistance is not based on peaceful methods. The resistance is based on suicide bombs and capturing Israeli soldiers. Fatih, which is always in contact to the Israeli governments, could not make a deal like that from before. It is the time for Hamas now. Hamas leaders said "who want to challenge us can go and negotiate to gain more prisoners from Zionists".

 

The question raised recently is “What will happen if Hamas maintains this policy and captures new Shalit”. In any case Israel is on alert to Hamas’ attempting to capture new soldier. Last attacks to Eliyat must be remembered at that point. After those attacks Israeli side blamed Hamas and they commented attacks as an attempting to capture new soldiers. After Netanyahu’s speech it can be easily deduced that in case that capturing Israeli revenge will be too much heavy. Some specialists reconsider that scenario. According to pessimist scenario Israel is intending a new large scaled operation to Gaza. If those prisoners who are released hold an attack to Israel, it will be an amazing opportunity to invade Gaza. Indeed, it is clear that Netanyahu’s intention is not ensuring peace. We cannot close our eyes to new settlements being built in West Bank and Jerusalem. While lasting those plans which kill all peace talks, drawing optimistic views cannot be considered realist.

 

 

Once shalit deal rocked the news websites, TV channels, Arab and Israeli streets, thoughts came to minds of people asking why we did not reach this deal from a very early beginning, who was the obstacle of such deals?

 

Actually The Palestinian case is the most sensitive case in the Middle East. Any actor despite its size can affect the peace process in it, from the big poles of Fatih and Hamas to the small fractions belonging to them. Also this case is a very fertile one through which any regional power can utilize its foreign policy tools in it, either through mediations, initiatives, shuttle visits between conflicting fractions. Thus the polarization of Middle East politics is playing a great role in the case.

 

One of the pillars in Middle East politics is Iran. The Iranian revolution declares in its principles that the conflict with Israel is not just a conflict with the Arab world but the entire Islamic world. Iran presented itself as the waited guide for the Islamic world who will resist the American hegemony on the Muslim countries affairs. So it started to form a reluctance axis in the Middle East to resist this hegemony and to take the leadership against Israel (according to principles of the Iranian revolution). But this Axis is being hit by many shocks that MAY or MAY NOT lead to reformulate it from the beginning, expelling or gaining new members in it. Shalit deal is a point which marks a clear difference between the members of the axis. Difference in interests or ideology is not important now but it is just a difference that may lead to some changes in this pact. That's what will be discussed now.

 

Starting by Hamas, its deputy foreign minister said "Hamas policies have had a big shift. We have to invest in the Arab Spring to get more fruits from it".  Hamas behavior now entails that it is searching for a new backup benefactor if the Syrian regime fall. For example Hamas is enhancing its relations now with Egypt Muslim brotherhood. At the annual conference of Hamas hold after conciliation with faith (led by Egypt), lots of thanks, greetings were sent by leaders to the Muslim brotherhood and their efforts in the reconciliation with Fatih. Not only that but also Ismail Haniyeh was invited on the annual Iftar in Ramazan by Muslim brotherhood in Cairo and a delegation led by deputy Brotherhood chief Goma Amin met Ismail Haniyeh ın gaza, head of the Gaza administration, in celebration of thıs swap. Mahmoud Ghozlan a spokesman for the group in Cairo told Reuters News Agency, "This is the first delegation from the Brotherhood to visit Gaza," he added also "It wasn't allowed before to go there at all."

 

Iran did not show any reaction towards the swap deal or even the reconciliation with Fatih. Unlike Muslim brotherhood who pressed Hamas toward both processes. More than that, Iran cuttıngoff its funds to Hamas has contributed to a financial crisis in Gaza. Government salaries were halved in the summer and Hamas has imposed unpopular taxes on imported cars and rebuilding projects.

 

We also shouldn't hide our eyes that Hamas is originally a part of Muslim brotherhood big network all over the world. Sheikh Ahmed Yasin formed this movement as an Islamic resistant movement on the basics of the brotherhood. Both of Hamas and Muslim brotherhood are Sunnis.

 

 

Concerning Syrian card, Syrian regime (big pillar in the reluctance axis in the region) is still a card in the hands of the Iranian indirect policy towards Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But this regime is slipping day after day in the face of the successive condemnations from the whole world, even from Hamas (the Sunni fraction) which is defending massacres against Sunnis in Syria. Syria, which is hosting the political office of Hamas on its land, has no presence in the swap deal. This doesn't completely entail that the Syrian card had been completely burnt as much as it entails that the Syrian influence in the Palestinian case become more limited. El-Assad regime is too much concentrating on its domestic affairs and fears from any irresponsible military operation against him. El-Assad warned that any military actions towards his countries will lead the Middle East to be a piece of Hell.

 

Too many divisions are being witnessed in the Syrian army, the Arab League requested from the member states to withdraw their ambassadors from Syria. Al-Azhar el Sherif (the first Sunni destination) declared that any regime facing the peaceful demonstration by force is vicious (baği). Also if the revolution in Syria succeeded, there is no doubt that the new government will have a big Sunni share by which any Iranian presence will be not like the beginning. So again we have to repeat the question to the Iranian leadership, how will Iran make use of Syrian regime in the Palestinian case after now?!!! …

 

 

There is no doubt that any revolutions or popular uprisings came due to people dissatisfaction on the current situation. Mubarak foreign policy did not have any clear vision. Unlike Nasser foreign policy which is named to be pan Arabism and Sadat foreign policy of Egypt First. Even after revolution Egypt is still working without a clear vision-oriented foreign policy. Actions taken by Egypt in the region are not reflecting the revolutionary sense in it. The biggest Arabic country did not obey the Arab league request of withdrawing the Arab ambassadors from the Syrian regime saying that "it is a sovereignty decision". At that time, the Libyan revolutionary council quickly responded to the request without any sovereignty excuses. But still Egypt is addressing the situation and actions from a purely security perspective which is reasoned to the military council ruling right now.

 

Countries came out of revolutions are weak and they are more exposable to regional power influence for a period of time. Russia witnessed that after the Bolshevik revolution but shortly after it formed the big Soviet Union. Despite this weakness and missing a vision oriented foreign policy, there are strong institutions (official or unofficial) within Egypt that can influence in their external environment.

 

The security institution in Egypt was and still one main pillar in the Egyptian foreign policy. It takes lots of responsibilities in the parameter of Egypt mainly the Palestinian case with its all dimensions. Actually we can say that any Egyptian action or initiative taken right now towards the reconciliation between faith and Hamas, Shalit swap, Egyptian prisoners swap with Israeli spies are all falling in the Egyptian National Security Net. The hot situation in Gaza or Ramallah is without doubt not in the interest of the National security of Egypt.

 

The Egyptian role in the swap is considered to be a message not for just recent regional powers but also academics and the whole world that Egypt still can influence in the region, Egypt owns many key issues in the Palestinian case. Davutğlo the Turkish foreign minister said that "any role in the region is complementary to the Eygptian role". This message is emphasized hardly during the exclusive television interview with Shalit. The big rising Egyptian flag beside the interviewer was most noticed despite the unimportant questions being asked to the solider. Not only Hamas now is the winner but Egypt is also winner. It made deals by this swap. It liberated many Egyptian prisoners out of Israeli prisons instead of an Israeli-American spy came to Egypt during the revolution. Egypt got a military F-16 air fighters deal from the United States by this swaps.

 

The unofficial Egyptian institutions like Muslim brotherhood played a role after the swap. As mentioned from before that Hamas is enhancing its relations with Muslim brotherhood and other actors in the region, the visit held by Muslim brotherhood is marked and scored to the role of Egyptian public diplomacy. If Muslim brotherhood carried on these visits to any hot spot in the Middle East and still they are enjoying their heavy weight in Egypt and in neighboring countries, so there is absolutely a new pillar gained by the Egyptian foreign policy which is public diplomacy.

 

By the mentioned gains Egypt got from the deal, we can say that Egypt ate too much from the cake of Shalit. These big deals cannot be done with just one regional actor. There is a role for countries either by supporting or hindering this swap. Turkish prime minister pressed on Hamas leaders to accept any deal for Shalit as it will give a good impression on Hamas. Egypt technically well designed the swap, managed it well and raised its flag during the live interview with Shalit witnessed by the whole world.