The Middle East has woken up to a great political earthquake in 2011. The revolution in Tunisia ignited by unemployed and silent youth bounced into Egypt, the largest and critical country of the Arab world. The worries of similar social explosion in other countries led the start of political reforms in Jordan, Yemen , Algeria and Syria. Moreover, fall of the pro-West
Lebanese government by the Iranian-backed Hezballah-oriented deputies’ withdrawal and the division of Sudan into two states after the referendum are the developments that will potentially change the global balance of power. The new wave of protests demanding democracy from authoritarian regimes is especially inspired by Turkey’s economic, social and political performance during the last decade. Turkey’s interest in Middle Eastern issues such as the Palestine problem, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear program are all in relation with the Turkey’s increasing role in the region. Therefore, Turkey’s domestic and foreign affairs followed in the Arab world in general and in Egypt particular brings an important empirical question regarding Turkey’s new perception in the region. This research seeks to answer such questions: How do the Egyptians view the Turkish experiences in areas such as education and economic development? Do Egyptians perceive Turkey as a “model” for themselves? What is Turkey’s role in the Arab world and in the new Arabian revolutions? How do the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and other leaders of the Egyptian revolution view Turkey? Which factors shape Turkey’s image in the Middle East? What has Turkey done to improve its image and what should it do more?
Despite the historical background Turkey had distanced its self from the Arab world since the establishment of the Turkish Republic. In addition to the western orientation of the young Republic Turkey remained aligned with the Western world during the Cold War due to communist threat. Turkey probably kept itself distanced from the Arab world due its economic and political weakness in the early period. Turkey achieved economic and political development during the 1980s and began to open up to world markets, including to the Middle East. Especially with economic and democratic developments during the Justice and Development Party (JDP) rule during the last decade and thanks to its deliberate and active rapprochement policies to the Middle East, Turkey has recently gained a huge attention, popularity which helped it further enhance its activities in the region. Along with good neighboring policy, Turkey has recently paid closer attention regarding the regional problems such as the Palestinian problem and the stability of Iraq and Lebanon. Moreover, the popular Turkish soap operas in the Arab world, Turkey’s efforts to lift the embargo on Gaza and its prospering economy and democracy and its new foreign policy perspective encouraging closer relations for peace and good neighborhood caused serious public debates about the possibility of replicating the Turkish model in the Middle East in general and in Egypt in particular. These debates were put forth on the international arena after the emergence of Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions in the early 2011.
All these new developments requires a thorough study of how Turkey is perceived in the Arab world. At the same time, such a study will determine the parameters of Turkey’s potential to become a “model” and its soft power because of its newly economic, political and cultural presence in the Middle East. I chose to study this topic due to the possibility of major transformation in the Middle East in relation to several factors such as the 9/11 attacks and the following the invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, globalization, internet and the shifting balances of world power. During the course of this research, the Mavi Marmara ship attacked by Israel brought Turkey the top issue in the Arabian agenda. Thousands of news and opinion articles were published to discuss Turkey’s new role, position and economic and political achievements. Moreover, the fact that the 2011 wave of democratization in the Arab world brought backs the relevance of the “Turkish model” and experience proving the significance and timelines of my research.
Due to its position and importance in the Arab world, Egypt is the best place to study Turkey’s image. Due to its huge population, intellectual achievements, its approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict and its recent paralysis due to its economic and political problems, the demand for change and a model was very visible in Egypt. The earlier studies conducted by foreign scholars happened to be outdated in that regard. Moreover, due to their generalist nature either on the Arab world, they do not directly analyze the Egyptian situation. For example, Ibrahim Dakuki’s Al-Atrak Lada al-Arab in 1998 cannot essentially address the changes caused by the 9/11 atttacks, the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the spread of internet and global financial crisis and the JDP government in Turkey. Therefore, a new study of the current context has become a necessity.
Egypt and Turkey have enjoyed specialties. The cultural and historical ties between Turkey and Egypt date back to the pre-Ottoman period. With the transfer of the Caliphate to the Ottomans, the Turks ruled most of the Arab world for about four centuries. Egypt remained under the Ottoman rule with its special status granted to the family of Muhammed Ali Pasha. However, the Ottomans lost Egypt to the British Empire before the World War I. After the War, the founders of the new Turkish Republic wanted to establish a secular nation-state, based on a radical Westernization program. This new project sought integration with the West while severing ties with the Ottoman legacy and the Muslim Arab world. With this secular and nationalist outlook, Turkey adopted a different path from those in the Arab world in general and Egypt in particular. During the Cold War era, Egypt and Turkey preferred the Eastern and Western camps respectively, leading to a negative relation between the two. However, this disconnect began to change during the 1980s and 2000s when the JDP opened new channels in its foreign policy practices considering Egypt as an important country in the region.
The JDP government sees Egypt as a gateway to Africa in addition to its centrality in the Middle East. In recent years, Egypt’s stagnant politics and insufficient economic development along with decreasing role in regional problems and adopting a pro-US and pro-Israeli positions weakened its leadership position in the Arab world. Meanwhile Turkey has returned to the region. Now, the Middle East is polarized between the Shia camp led by Iran and the Sunni camp led by the Saudi Arabia while Egypt is accommodating its relations with the US and the West. Turkey adopted a middle-ground between the two. In this context, Turkey’s relation with Egypt varied between cooperation and competition, depending on the context and issue. Therefore, how the Egyptian elites and population have viewed Turkey’s new active role in the Middle East remains an important empirical question. While explaining this development, their evaluation of social, economic and political forces is to be taken into consideration.
This project aims to study Turkey’s image in Egypt by conducting research in four main areas: (1) The official view on Turkey reflected in Egyptian textbooks taught in the secondary schools; (2) Turkey’s image presented in the Egyptian media as reflected in the prominent media outlets covering major issues of Turkish politics; (3) Turkey’s popular image among Egyptians, especially the youth; and (4) Reactions to the perceived nature of Turkey’s relations with its Arab neighbors and the West. In studying these aspects, I paid a special attention to the debate over whether Turkey can “model” for the region. The Egyptian popular perception regarding the developments of Turkey’s international significance is not only academically significant but also concerns Turkey’s economic and cultural role in the region as well as its foreign policy. The analysis of the perception of the Cyprus issue, the Armenian problem, relations with Iran and Iraq, Turkey’s secularism and democracy and its economic development are also consistent with Turkey’s five-year development plan that envisions developing relations with the Middle East. The conclusions shed light on the nature of Turkey’s soft power in the region beside its public diplomacy.
The two main assumptions underlie this study. First, political forces usually arise on the basis of social realities. Second, as a centripetal state in the Middle East, Egypt today is before a “crossroad” in the course of its modern development, and that this crossroad results from the historical nexus formed by several factors such as the new presidential elections, the possibility of regime change, increasing popular demands for open society, the continuing prominence of Islamic movements. All these factors conclude in Egypt’s social and political trends highly relevant as indicators of more general regional trends. I earlier assumed that the Turkish issues are historically and currently significant and there are significant differences between elite and popular views on Turkey before the research. I used content analysis as the main analysis tool to analyze school books, newspapers, magazines, journals and TV programs as well as the in-depth interviews.
Three hypotheses guided this research (1) Images of Turkey among Egyptians are multiple and conflicting, (2) In overall sense, the product of the various images of Turkey does not uphold the notion that Turkey can serve as a successful model for Egypt’s approach to impending political issues. (3) The relative rise of positive images of Turkey can contribute to Turkey’s soft power particularly in Egypt and in the Arab world in general.
The conclusions of this research revealed that the perceptions of Turkey in Egypt was quite multiple and diverse. However, the image of Turkey was found more positive than earlier expected. More interestingly and contrary to my hypothesis, Turkey is mostly perceived as a model for Egypt in economic and political respects. My other hypothesis stated Turkey’s increasingly popular image could contribute to its soft power in the Middle East and Egypt. The study revealed similar results in the level of influence which were greater than we envisioned. The increasing economic relations with the Egypt and Turkey’s support for the Palestinian cause played an important role in this development.
The fact that, the JDP’s Islamist roots -though it names its vision as “conservative democrat” since its establishment beside being split from the Islamist National Outlook (Milli Görüş) Movement, caused debates about the compatibility of Islam and democracy, secularism and democracy and even Islam and secularism. Turkey’s increasing active role in Middle Eastern politics, its support for Palestine problem, improvements in its economy and democratic records are followed by many groups, including the MB and other opposition movements. The Mubarak regime seemed to be annoyed by these developments due to its authoritarian rule and chronic economic problems. However, the Egyptian regime has always avoided publicly expressing its unease with the Turkish model. On the other hand, oppositional movements referred to the Turkish model in almost all debates. Some suggested that Egypt must follow the Turkey while others argued that Egypt must benefit from the successful Turkish experiences in different areas.
The leaders of the recent Egyptian revolution such as Muhammed al-Baradai, the MB, the Kifaya Movement and other political movements frequently referred to the Turkish model and expressed their demands for a civilian democratic rule in Egypt similar to that of Turkey. The nationalist thinker Muhammed Hasanain Haykal and former IAEA-chief Muhammed Al-Baradai suggested that the MB must turn into a civilian democratic movement like the JDP. However, many argued that the Mubarak regime did not allow such a transformation with its repressive and exclusionary attitude to any serious opposition. Inspired by the JDP’s huge success in the 2007 parliamentary elections, the MB launched a reform project based on democracy and civil liberties rather than demanding sharia (Islamic Canon Law) urgently. Saleem al-Awwa established a civilian-democratic party called Al-Wasat by splitting from the MB as he was not satisfied with the level of reform. Moreover, one of the main opposition parties, Al-Wafd, argued that in the Turkish model the military continued to hold critical positions while allowing democracy to flourish. At the same time, it expressed its fascination with the level of Turkish development during the last decade arguing that the Mubarak regime made Egypt the “sick man” during this period. Similarly, the Kifaya movement believed that the Turkish experience provides positive examples away from radicalism and fanaticism.
The Turkish experience contributed to the rise of grievances among Arab youth living under authoritarian rule and dire economic conditions while creating a belief in the possibility of a better future. They emphasized that Muslim societies can also achieve democracy and economic development. The change in Turkey occurred within democratic process but the Tunisian and Egyptian change came out through revolution due to the lack of available paths in the political system. However, I foresee that the leaders of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions will follow the Turkish model in terms of democracy, economic development and foreign policy