2011 is the year of the Arab revolutions. Most of the terrorism specialists in Israel agree on that the Arab Spring is a challenge for Israel’s policy. The policy depends on dictatorial regimes in keeping down Islamic radicalism. Israel must search for a new ways to deal with the new regimes will be founded in the near future.

No doubt that the concept of Security costs Israel too much. From 1948 till 2011, all the Israeli leaders are keen on securing the Israeli borders without looking at the society they are securing. According to the defense minister of Israel Ehud barak words to Haaretz, he stated that the Defense Ministry is already cutting its NIS 40 billion budget. This NIS 40 billion were cut from the balance at the same time there are lots of demonstrations in Tel Aviv complaining about the high prices of housing, food and initial needs. Barrak said "Israel can't cut defense budget to meet social demands".

By 6 Egyptian soldiers killing after attacks to Israel from Sinai, Israel and Egypt relations are tensed than at any time in 30 years. Now Israel is expecting Egypt government to ensure security in Sinai owing to increased number of forces which has been lawless.

Attacks to Eliyat

Israel felt for the first time the most serious impact of the Arab Spring that has been waited for months with a concern, by attacks to touristic city Eliyat. 8 people killed by consecutive attacks. Targeting a bus which was carrying soldiers aroused the question that did the attackers wants to capture a new Gilad Shalit? After Netanyahu’s words “Revenge will be taken. They are not living who ordered kill our people” Israel started bombing Gaza. Head of the Popular Resistance Committees Kemal Neyrad died during retaliatory bombing too. According to some words by the Egyptian ambassador in the Palestinian authority, Egypt interfered to stop an attack targeting the life of Khaled Mishal.

After overset Mubarak, border concerns gained depth by these attacks in Israel. Israeli National Radio told that after Mubarak, Egypt cannot control the peninsula, Sinai is under control of Bedouins and tribes.

Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty 1979:  Privileges of yesterday and concerns of today

After revolution some voices has been starting rising up questioning the peace treaty 1979 in Egypt. Till the Israeli attacks on the Egyptian soldiers on borders with an aircraft took place. According to treaty, the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula is divided into three sections, Zone A (West Sinai), Zone B (Central Sinai) and Zone C (East Sinai) parts.  Only United Nations forces and Egyptian civil police will be stationed in Zone C. The Egyptian civil police armed with light weapons will perform normal police functions within this Zone.

Egypt wants to enhance its authority on Sinai. Sinai Mountains' nature makes Sinai a shelter of outlaws people, big Drugs and weapons dealers. There may be a similarity between Sinai and Afghanistan if the situation drove to the worst. The gap security felt by the Egyptian inhabitants in Sinai are felt by the Israel also at the same time.  Lots of operations waged by police forces and army help for arresting those outlaws' people but the result is the same usual.

Thus Lots of military specialists and political analysts in Egypt called for amending the treaty by which more armed forces can enter this region and ensure sovereignty on it. Especially The fourth article of the treaty says that it is possible to amend any security issues but after reaching an agreement between the two parties of the treaty.

In Israel, the situation is double faced. Some voices accepted the presence of more Egyptian forces in Zone C as mentioned by Ehud barak to The Economist, while on the other hand some have suspicions about the Arab spring and new fractions will come to power. Netanyahu declared it directly that there is no need for amending the peace treaty with Israel.

Sinai: a throne in the back of Israel

 In spite of restoring Sinai back by 1973 war and Camp David, the urbanization process in Sinai has not started yet. The style of life there is mainly Bedouin and tribal one. It's the Bedouins who defended the city in the days of the 2011 revolution after the sudden withdrawal of police forces. The absence of the urban life and the strong mountain nature of Sinai lead it to be very difficult for any government to examine its sovereignty on this piece of land.

Bedouins-the main settlers in Sinai- have a very bad experience with the old government and lake any confidence in the new declarations by the new government. The political advisor of the interim Egyptian prime minister said that "Egypt security mainly depends on Sinai development not through slogans". But till now no real actions were taken. Lots of Bedouins sons were arrested by the old regime either for drugs or weapons or spy cases, some of them fake cases and others are real. The Bedouins are asking for releasing them by words and some actions like blocking some vital roads in Sinai.

One more clue for the weak capture on Sinai is the horrible story of Sinai with the masked groups. The five successive attacks on the Natural gas pipeline to Israel and the explosion of seven hand bombs in the police station of Al-Arish signify the weak representation of authority in Sinai. Another police station is exposed to a big attack by heavy weapons RGJ and Grenof led to 5 injured from police forces. All of these actions executed by groups of masked people driving Land cruisers and revolving in Sinai streets.

Sinai is the eastern gate for Egypt. At the days of Camp David till restoring the last parts from Israel, there were no separation between the west bank and Gaza. After the clash between Fatih and Hamas forces and enhancing Hamas control on Gaza, Mubarak regime participated in the siege of Gaza through closing Rafah border. With a complete absence of any figure of authority on Sinai, lots of tunnels were digged underground in order to conduct food, goods to Gaza.  But outlaws groups made use of these tunnels for their illegal actions. They used them in bringing weapons, drugs, smuggling outlaws groups in the mountains of Sinai.

Hamas Losing Control of Gaza!!

Neither Hamas nor the other entities have taken blame the attacks. Despite Hamas’s callings for not attacking, rockets were thrown after blooded attacks. Hamas doesn’t want to arouse reaction before Palestine State bit at UN. This is the main reason of preserving ceasefire. How will attacks to Eliyat affect the State of Palestine bid, this is also another question. Mahmud Abbas’s main aim is “A Palestine State who has East Jerusalem as capital city” if this aim won’t be real Fatah will abolish the Ramallah and convey administration to Israel with blaming Israel for being “cheap occupant”.

Islamic Jihad Organization declared not to join attacks but other organizations resumed their attacks after Israeli reprisal attacks. In any case Hamas has difficult days over Iran declined aid to Gaza. The question of losing control is really serious concern for Hamas. The main reason of Hamas success in Gaza was the social activities in Gaza. Without external aids it is highly difficult to preserve these social facilities. 

Amr Elleithy & Yasemen Semiz (SDE Interns)