Birol Akgün, the head of the international relations department at Selçuk University and a specialist working for the Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), noted that the Kurdish minority in Syria is not as organized or influential as their counterparts in Iraq, Iran or Turkey, cautioning that any Western intervention with Syria may create a real mess or chaos in the country.
“Anything that happens in the four countries that have Kurdish populations will be of interest to Turkey. But to what extent Turkey will be affected by them depends on developments. Turkey will surely be affected if things really amount to chaos in Syria. But the impact on Turkey will be of a different nature. Western countries can be expected to meddle in Syria without hesitation as they did in Libya. This is because Syria is a key country for the security of Israel, which may be expected to facilitate the Western intervention with Syria. Already, it is being accused of inciting the incidents. Unlike in Libya, there is a sizable Christian population in Syria. However, if Syria speeds up its democratization efforts, the process will certainly be reversed. The real danger with Syria is not Kurds, but Western intervention. Syria is not capable of having any impact on Turkey in terms of the Kurdish issue. For these reasons, Turkey is trying to ensure a managed transition in Syria,” he said.
Akgün further pointed out that Turkey will maintain its democratic initiative process and does not have any other choice. “The democratic initiative process has become a security issue for Turkey. If it fails to follow through with these initiatives, Turkey will continue to have security issues. In this respect, Erdoğan’s visits to Arbil and Najaf were major steps.”