Not only their domestic politics but also unpopular foreign policies which have been very far from the agenda of the people ignited the angriness of masses to the ruling elites. In the example of Egypt as it is known particularly after the Camp David process exercised 1978-1979, became the only one Arab country to set up diplomatic relation with Israel and has had good relations with Tel Aviv and Washington. This policy of Egypt secured and encouraged implicitly Israel to invade Lebanon several times and provided the opportunity to prolong the occupation in Palestine very harshly.
Before the Camp David accords, Egypt was the most popular and strongest Arab country which had capability to make leadership for others in order to solve common economic and political problems including the Arab-Israel issue and occupied territories. Unfortunately after the Accords Egypt was forced to capitulate but main cost was expulsion from Arab community, until the late 1980s. Thereafter, Egypt has been basic American ally and received huge amount of foreign aid from Washington after Israel, the second country in the world which has been provided foreign military support in order to solve Israel’s security problem. Egypt has accepted similar policies in Palestine issue with Israel and didn’t aloud during the process of Lebanon invasion in 2006 and Gaza war in 2008.
As a result of political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, new movements began in Algeria, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain. Thousands of people are on the streets in Algeria, Yemen, Bahrain and Libya demonstrating to change their governments. Spirit of Egypt and Tunisia transformation would probably spread to other Middle Eastern countries. Basic commonalities of these regimes are to be pro-western governments and political pressures have been justified by any kind of security or some other reasons as well as underdevelopment economic structures and unequal distribution of income among people. Most of the people are still living unfortunate conditions, underemployment and lack of social security measures for health and education. But there are some differences. For example among these countries Yemen is the most underdeveloped country for above conditions. Egypt is the second one. Tunisia in fact as a third country which have slightly better condition but political pressures have been very high. As it is known Ben Ali had been in power more than 20 years. Whereas, Algeria and Libya are economically in better condition if compared with other countries mentioned. Per capita income in Algeria is around 5.000 dollar, and in Libya is around 11.000-12.000 dollar. But in Algeria, for 20 years Martial Law has been implemented giving no political rights to opposition groups. For these criteria, there is no need to talk about the situation in Libya. Qaddafi is the only leader maintaining his power for 42 years. After for a longer dispute with the United States and other Western countries, he reset the relations with those countries by leaving to pursue nuclear activities in 2004. He placed himself among non controversial leaders in the region like other pro-Americans. He even recommended to the other Arab leaders to follow the same way for having unproblematic relations with the Western World.
But he will most probably share the same destiny with other authoritarian leaders like Ben Ali and Mubarak. He has had strong support from tribes but recent development indicated that he lost most of the support of those tribes and even some officials such as Justice Minister and Interior Minister. More than 500 civilian have been killed so far. He defied that he would use power and violence if protesters don’t surrender. Western reaction is fluctuating as EU condemned and USA announced the unacceptability of using force against civilians. United Nations responding to Libyan use of force against the democracy supporters held meeting to discuss the situation. UN Secretary General addressed the similar speech to public about the regrettable developments in Libya toward civilians.
Turkish position is clear that prime minister and minister of foreign affairs set forth the anxieties about the developments in Libya. Definitely Turkey has very good relations and has deep historical bounds with Libyan people for cultural and social reasons.
The most important question is not only future of these leaders whether to be toppled or not but also whether the people could achieve a stable democracy or existing ruling classes will hold the administration by other ways or not.
The history is a critical point where it goes. In this point, Libya would be turning point for the fate of revolutions from now on. There have been two different examples; one is Tunisian and Egyptian example which have been peaceful protests became successful, but in the Libyan example going on, violence is being very widely used by the government. Therefore, further developments will determine the successes of protests in other countries which are some of them still continuing. If Qaddafi regime succeeds to survive, then probably the other examples will be oppressed by force in similar ways.
(Prof. Dr. Tayyar Arı, Uludag University, Head of the Department of International Relations, Bursa-Turkey)