The Assembly of Kosovo unanimously declared independence from Serbia on February 17th 2008. The proclamation of independence was soon followed by the official recognition from the United States and the key EU member-states – France, Germany and Great Britain. The immediate response from Serbia was to reject this declaration and consider it as illegal. This stance was strongly supported by Russia and China, as well as a number of states facing secessionist threats (e.g. Spain, Georgia). The Republic of Serbia vowed to use every possible means to bring back Kosovo under its jurisdiction. In October 2008, Serbia achieved a small political victory when the United Nations General Assembly approved its proposal to put the whole matter of independence before the International Court of Justice. However, it must be noted that the ICJ may only act as an advisory body and that its verdicts are not legally binding.
Up until today, 69 United Nations member states officially recognized the independence of Kosovo. When it comes to the European Union the number is 22 out of 27. Kosovo was not officially recognized by Spain, Slovakia, Greece, Romania and Cyprus; either because they are threatened by secessionist movements themselves or due to their close relations with Serbia. When it comes to the Balkans region, the majority of Serbia’s neighboring states recognized the independence (Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro and Macedonia). Croatia’s recognition of Kosovo during the Presidency of Stjepan Mesic especially caused tensions that last even until today among the two leading countries of the Western Balkans. The Serbian President Boris Tadic even declined the invitation to attend the Inauguration of Ivo Josipovic as the third President of Croatia (18th February 2010) because the President of Kosovo Fatmir Sejdiu was attending to the ceremony. Serbians were especially disappointed with the fact that Montenegro, considered as their closest ally, also recognized the independence of Kosovo. The Montenegrin Ambassador in Belgrade was temporarily declared “persona non grata” and several prominent political figures in the country called for the boycott of Montenegro’s holiday resorts which are very popular among Serbians (thus trying to weaken their neighbor’s economy which is greatly dependent on tourism revenues).
The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is a very specific one. According to the Dayton Peace Agreement (1995), it is a country made up of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH; dominated by Bosniaks and Bosnian Croats) and the Republika Srpska (RS; mainly populated by Bosnian Serbs – as the result of the 1992-1995 War and ethnic cleansing). The existence of the District of Brcko makes the state structure even more complicated. The country is in a deep political crisis, talks and negotiations concerning the much needed constitutional reforms are constantly being blocked by Serb politicians from RS. The nationalist rhetoric is lately skyrocketing due to the upcoming October 2010 General Elections, increasing the level of instability in the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina did not yet recognize Kosovo nor is it sure it will do so in the near future. Because of the complicated voting system in the Parliament and an even more complicated one in the entities’ Parliaments, Bosnian Serb politicians are easily able to block any attempt of discussion regarding the official recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Prior to July 22nd 2010, Serbia strongly believed that the ICJ ruling would be in its favor. It was able to obtain great support from numerous countries which presented evidence in its favor during the trial, most notably from Russia, China and Spain. The Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vuk Jeremic, called the ICJ verdict as the “moment of truth” and claimed that the Court will certainly not support the unilateral secession of Kosovo. Serbian officials argued that the Kosovo case could be a dangerous precedent that could significantly affect and alter the international system, “no border anywhere in the world, anywhere where a secessionist ambition is harbored will ever be safe."[2] On the other hand, Kosovo’s Albanian officials were as optimistic about the upcoming “moment of truth” as their Serbian counterparts. They argued that the case of Kosovo cannot be compared with cases such as Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia or Abkhazia. During the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Kosovo had the status of “autonomous province” – with its own constitution and Parliament. Albanians living in the province suffered great Serbian repressions during the 1980’s and 1990’s, culminating with a war and NATO intervention in 1999 (Clinton’s “military humanism” in order to protect human rights). Thus Kosovo’s officials claim that they had the right for national self-determination as a response to Serbian aggression, following the examples of other former Yugoslav Republics that gained independence. During the ICJ trial, these views were especially strongly supported by the United States, Germany and Great Britain.
After the “moment of truth” finally came and Kosovo’s unilateral act of secession was declared legal, Serbia did not give up and instead mounted a new diplomatic offensive. It is strongly believed that more states will recognize Kosovo’s independence as the result of such verdict. According to some specialists, 55 countries are set to do so in the upcoming days or weeks. This would put the number of states which recognized Kosovo to more than 120, which would guarantee the youngest Balkan state membership in the United Nations. Serbian officials will try to obstruct this using all possible diplomatic tools. They are planning to submit a resolution on Kosovo to the United Nations General Assembly, as well as calling for new negotiations to be opened with Kosovo’s Albanian officials.
Serbia will never accept the independence of Kosovo nor will it ever stop claiming that territory for itself. It is considered a “holy land” for Serbs, a place where the seeds of the Serbian nation were planted and where Serbs faced the Ottoman Army on the Kosovo Field in 1389. But same goes for Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, who will never give up on their hard earned independent state. Thus the Kosovo dispute is not just over territory, it can be said that it is also about the Kosovar existence itself. Both ethnic groups claim the same piece of territory at the same time. Physics dictates that two particles cannot exist at the same time in the same place. Thus this is a typical example of what is known in international relations as a “zero-sum conflict”. One side can satisfy its territorial aspirations only at the direct expense of the other. Namely in that zero-sum game, Kosovo’s gain will be Serbia’s loss.
The fact is that Kosovo is de facto and de jure an independent state. No matter what Serbian officials might try to do on the diplomatic field, it is an irreversible fact. Their efforts seem more and more like Don Quixote’s fight against the windmills. Kosovo is on the path of becoming a member of the United Nations. But even without achieving that status it can easily function as a fully independent state, as was the case for the past two years. Independent Kosovo seems as the final nail in the coffin called the Break-up of Yugoslavia. Simply put, Serbia had to pay the price for its aggressive and bloody wars of the 1990’s. Unfortunately for it, the price to be paid turned out to be very high – it had to give up on its most precious asset…
Assistant Irfan STRIKA