The represented countries are the G-8 countries (the USA, England, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, Italy, Canada) and the developing 11 countries (India, South Korea, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Indonesia, China), and the EU. The G-20 countries, which used to meet every six months until 2008, will start to meet annually as of 2011. Indeed, the G-20 is not exactly an international organization. It does not have a permanent secretariat, bureaucracy, and headquarters. The platform provides an opportunity for close cooperation and consultation among the leaders of the member countries.
The power of the G-20 is dependent upon the population, economy, and commercial potentials represented worldwide by those countries. In a nutshell, the participant countries have the two thirds of the world population, 85 percent of the gross national product, and 80 percent of the world trade. Because of these reasons, the participant countries are responsible for obeying the decisions taken at the summits. As the recent global financial crisis has shown, in a globalized world the national economies are more dependent on each other than they are supposed and instability gives harm to everyone.
Toronto Summit and the Decisions Taken
The G-20 countries met in Toronto, Canada last weekend (June 26-27). The summit meeting witnessed an exact diplomatic fight between the views of the EU led by Germany and the suggestions of the USA. On the one hand, the USA suggested giving priority to the precautions which will offer economic recovery globally; on the other hand the EU, which was deeply affected by the financial crisis in Greece, suggested concentrating on providing financial discipline, preserving budget balances, and controlling the banking sector.
Considering the decisions taken in Toronto, the desires of the European politicians were dominant. Without a doubt, the most significant decision was to reduce the budget deficits 50 percent in 3 years. Herein the Germans might have the greatest influence. However, at the summit the Prime Minister of Germany-Merkel’s suggestion of “global banking tax” which she desired most, was not accepted. In conclusion, the G-20 has turned into a global governance group where critical decisions on economy are taken. But, the summit meetings also have the characteristics of a political platform where critical political issues are handled among the leaders.
Erdogan-Obama Meeting at the Summit
At the Toronto summit, Turkey may be among the most comfortable countries when economic-financial issues are dealt with among the participant countries. Therefore, the summit was considered as an opportunity for the Prime Minister Erdogan to improve the Turkish-American relations which were more straightened due to Iran crisis and Israel attack in the recent months. As a matter of fact, Erdogan, during his eight-year ruling except memorandum of March 1- perhaps has never been as nervous as this time when he meets the President of the USA. Moreover, the meeting was held when terror was escalating in the country.
However, as far as the media informed, Obama-Erdogan meeting was said to be held in a closer and efficient atmosphere than supposed to be. In consideration of the results, in spite of the recent criticisms of Washington for Turkey, it may be inferred that the Obama administration will continue its relations with the Erdogan administration without a significant amendment. But, the effects of the increasing suspicion in relations and of the Jewish lobby will be felt at each following step. Concretely speaking,
· The Obama administration promised to increase the cooperation on terror problem. This statement is the sign of the fact that the agreements between Turkey and the USA on cooperation against terror, whose framework was determined in November, 2007 will continue.
· On the other hand, the USA expects Turkey to improve its relations with Israel or at least tries to prevent the deterioration in relations between the two countries.
· Turkey preserves its determined attitude towards the Israel issue. The President of the USA stated that he will transfer Turkey’s determination to the Netanyahu administration. It is possible for the Turkish and Israeli administrations to start confidential and open negotiations on this issue over Washington on the following days. Lifting the Gaza blockage will be the facilitator for those negotiations.
· The Iran issue will continue to be an important disagreement between the USA and Turkey.
· Notwithstanding, there is a serial of great cooperation and opportunities between the USA and Turkey on the future of Iraq, the stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the light of the positive role Turkey played for the integration of the Sunnis in Iraq, it is highly probable that under the leadership of Turkey and England with the help of Pakistan, a process which will bring all parties together including the Taliban, will start in the coming months.
In the light of all points mentioned above, it will not be possible for the USA (the Obama administration) to do easily without Turkey and the Erdogan administration in the near future.
(by Prof. Dr. Birol Akgün)