Economics experts speaking with Today’s Zaman on the developing sanctions situation highlighted that while the sanctions regime may have a roundabout effect on Turkish-Iranian commercial ties, Turkey, which voted against the measure at the Security Council, may encounter new commercial opportunities with Iran that are to its advantage with the sanctions in place.

 

The Director of the Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), Professor Yasin Aktay, said the sanctions bring advantages that outweigh any damage that they could present for Turkish-Iranian trade. “The sanctions are more concerned with weapons and [Iran’s] Revolutionary Guards; there’s not much activity between [Iran and Turkey] in these fields. Our trade with Iran is concentrated in oil, natural gas, industry and consumer products,” Aktay said. He further commented that sanctions had above all a strong psychological effect and that this could lead to increased trade with Turkey in fields not covered by the sanctions. “It’s an important position to be in when you are a country that can say ‘no’ and remain on its feet; there’s no better public diplomacy than this,” he said.

 

Dr. Bayram Sinkaya of the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) says the sanctions could affect Turkish-Iranian economic relations indirectly at the money transfer level, as the sanctions could bring restrictions for the opening of branches of Iranian banks in Turkey and vice versa. “But even if this indirectly affects such efforts, it won’t affect our trade, because the products being traded between the nations fall outside the jurisdiction of the sanctions,” he said, remarking that the potential of the sanctions to indirectly influence trade might possibly affect Turkish-American relations.

 

Political actors are also unconcerned with the UN resolution’s potential to affect bilateral commercial ties. Republican People’s Party (CHP) deputy and economics professor Esfender Korkmaz says that what should really be discussed is the potentially positive effect on Turkish-Iranian trade that Turkey’s “no” vote on the sanctions resolution could hold. Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) economics expert Professor Mithat Melen agreed and took it a step further, adding: “As it is, when we look at the content of the UN’s decision, we can see that it is more political than economic in nature. I don’t think our bilateral relations will be affected much, but what is more important here is the impact that our vote in Iran’s favor will bear on our relations with other countries.”

 

 

Professor Aktay of the SDE says Turkey’s vote against sanctions on Iran represents an alternative policy that goes against the tide at the Security Council. Most nations voted in favor of the sanctions under pressure from the US, he says, but Turkey and Brazil distinguished themselves with their opposing votes. “They’re being commended globally for this. … And Turkey and Brazil’s brand power is rising as a result. This will affect all sectors, especially tourism and the economy positively,” he said.

 

The “no” vote has boosted Turkey’s esteem in the region and is an advantage for the country when it comes to nations such as China and Russia. “Turkey has successfully portrayed itself as a nation that creates its own policy and stands behind its own policies.”

 

Meanwhile, Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) President Professor Güven Sak emphasized in his comments to Today’s Zaman that despite Turkey’s opposing vote it will still have to abide by the sanctions. “But this will not negatively affect our relations -- just the opposite, in the medium term they will gain momentum in contributing to Iranian integration into the global economy,” he said. “Increased relations with Turkey will contribute to the development of the private sector in Iran, which is a beneficial development both for Iran and for the West. This means patience is required in the medium term, and to watch the developments in a coolheaded manner.”

 

Sak also noted that these developments were important in terms of the “zero problems with neighbors” mantra of Turkish foreign policy and said that by taking carefully considered steps -- such as modernization of border gates -- Iran and Turkey will draw closer rather than be distanced by the UN’s decision.

 

Today’s Zaman

11 June 2010, Friday

 

ALI ASLAN KILIÇ  ANKARA