Five months ago we wrote the impossibility of internal reforms of Syrian regime like other dictatorships. Because these type of regimes know well that with changing to democracy they would not have any opportunity of life and completely lose the loutishly used power. Also they do not switch to democracy because the sense of guiltiness and fear of revenge due to the deliberate ill-treatment done against their people. Events which taking place in Libya, Yemen and Syria show this situation fairly clear. Even Hosni Mubarak’s – prosecuted in killing innocent demonstrators and corruption - attitudes in the ill circumstance show the psychology of dictators.
Recently becoming thoroughly ruthless Assad regime is not different from others. He tried to gain time, despite his reform promise to Wall Street Journal seven months ago and Turkey’s reform calls. In order to stop bloodshed and to avoid confusions in the region, Turkish government encouraged Assad regime and waited for it like the international community. Turkey hoped to see this, based on neighborhood relations with Syria.
Even after seen that the regime is inable and unwilling concerning the reforms, Turkey still more opportunity than necessity to this regime, because Turkey’s repeated calls were fudged with empty promises and during this period, thousands of Syrians escaped from the oppression of the regime and settled close to the borders of Turkey and more than 2000 protestors were killed. During the last week in Ramadan days the electricity and water of the people were cut and hundreds of them were killed.
Even due to the Syria’s bloody crackdowns on protestors, the old friend - Russia warned Syria. Gulf States and Arab League fearing from Arab revolutions, demanded to end these ill-treatments. The same responses also come from the West. In his yesterday’s speech the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the patience of Turkey was ending because of Syrian events and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Davutoglu would give an exact message. After this Turkey’s treatment has come to prominence.
Turkey must not be deceived any more to the distraction tactics. No chance should be left to slow down occurring international response and to gain more time. During his visit Davutoglu must say to Assad regime that he has time and it is also time to back off. Because giving time for mediation or reform calls has begun to seem as biding Syrian regime and it also started to damage.
in terms of regional balances, Assad regime has to go. The relations with Turkey have come to point of freezing because of the regime’s cruel and treacherous attitude. So it is not possible for Assad regime to develop useful contacts from then on. Also others could not be as effective as Turkey to overthrow Assad regime. Because Iran, Israel, the USA and the western countries do not want to overthrow Syrian regime and fear that Classic Islamists may come to the power. On the other hand, those who demanded military intervention for Libya even before Kaddafi’s any brutality, are not able to say “Assad must retreat!” yet.
Iran, from the point of view of faith ties and strategic interests, is not interested in overthrowing of Assad regime. Because thanks to Assad regime there has occurred Shiite effect domain from Iran up to the Mediterranean. The collapse of Syria would also effect to Lebanon, so in that it would be a very big loss of influence for Iran in the region. It is known that Iran materially and spiritually support the Syrian regime with propaganda, money and weapon aids. The secret competition in the region between Turkey and Iran points out that Turkey’s impartiality is not right and the best solution for Assad regime is to give authority up.
The continuity of Syrian regime is in favor of Israel, because these types of dictators are barriers for occurrence of the real potential of their states. Israel also does not ignore the desire on the continuity of Assad regime. Fearing from authority of Islamists, dealing with their economic crisis and not being petroleum in the State the West is not interested in Syrian regime’s retreatment. But the western public opinion forces the state governors to act against massacres in Syria.
In this position Turkey should be more active and effective. Because the West and Arab states should take action under leadership of Turkey and Turkey has this power. Firstly the isolation of the regime should be provided on the way of Assad’s overthrowing. Condemnations and sanctions of the UN may help to be oppressed. The weak part of the Syrian regime is worsened economy. Lasting protests since five months have brought the economy to dead point and this can not continue for long time within these circumstances. Turkey must lead to wise sanctions and diplomatic pressures which would complicate regime’s work. Also it should be prevented any material aids from Iran and others which give “artificial respiration” to the regime. Gulf States might co-operate with Turkey, because they also do not prefer Syrian regime.
In his planned visit on Tuesday Minister Davutoglu must directly express to Assad regime that time has been over and finished. [After the statement of Assad’s consultant Buseynsa Shaban which they do not want any visit of Turkey, it would be better not to visit Syria.] The mediation between demonstrators and regime or giving time for reforms will not have any result and also will damage Turkey’s image. Strategically Syrian regime will not retreat so easily and without problems, but remaining of the regime will be more costly and harmful. Turkey must take more initiatives and focus on overthrowing of the regime