Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the Prime Minister of Turkey, won his third consecutive electoral victory yesterday (June 12th). Marking a record in Turkey’s democratic history, the AK Party both managed to win continuously and to increase its popular support. So, how will this victory affect Turkey’s foreign policy?
As at home, this event is also significant for Turkey’s foreign relations and its neighborhood as the region is going through a critical period in history. Today the West is struggling with an economic crisis and is challenged by China and other emerging powers while Turkey’s Arab neighbors are facing what is called “the Arab Spring”. Turkey’s late election will have deeper implications for the both its foreign relations.
First, Turkey’s opening to its neighbors will continue in the new period. Since its coming to power, the AK Party government sought closer relations with its neighbors. It improved its relations with Arab countries, tried to come to terms with Armenia and adopted more balanced relations with Iran, Russia and others. In his celebration speech Erdoğan considered his victory as good news for several capitals from Bosnia, Iraq, Syria and Palestine.
Secondly, Turkey’s active foreign policy will continue as the government does not have to worry about domestic debates. With a strong popular support, the AK Party government can devote more time and energy to external problems. This is especially important for the democratic tide in the Arab world. Due to its domestic focus of the elections, Erdogan recently had difficulties in focusing on the crisis in the Middle East. He will have ample time to follow through the developments in the region.
Erdoğan will continue to support democracy in the Middle East, more urgently in Libya and Syria. His celebration speech signaled a stronger commitment to the demands of democracy in the region: “the elections victory means a victory for the hopes of the oppressed and disadvantaged in the globalized world… Turkey gained democratic maturity to be followed by its region and the world.”
This can be seen as a signal for Turkey’s closer attention to the problems in Libya and Syria. Both crises continue to produce more victims and bloodshed everyday. Turkey’s support for democracy may become more obvious and concrete in the near future. That is because Erdogan offered to Qaddafi a safe exit but the parties did not come along with the offer. Similarly, Erdogan encouraged, and forced, the Asad regime to adopt democratic reforms in Syria but they failed to deliver while continuing to shed blood in the country. Lately Erdogan’s patience with Basshar Asad seemed to end as he expressed harsher criticism toward this regime. We can see more pressure on the Syrian regime as the Syrian refugees continue to flock to Turkey’s southern border.
Turkey’s relations with the West are unlikely to change significantly but it will be one of the axes rather than being a dominant one in Turkish foreign relations. Turkey will have good relations with the US and Europe but its recent efforts to have multi-dimensional and more balanced relations will continue, making the Middle East its main focus. Erdogan’s late victory is a major step for Turkey toward becoming a more important player in the globalized world.