SDE-Era Econometrics Seminar Series : "THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF SELECTED MENA COUNTRIES
October Seminar
by
Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE) & Econometric Research Association (ERA)
“The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the
Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”
Associate Professor Nildağ Başak CEYLAN
Chair:
Dr. Sıdıka BAŞÇI, SDE Economy Program
Speaker:
Associate Professor Nildağ Başak CEYLAN, Yıldırım Beyazıt University
Abstract:
This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country’s economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.
Nildağ Başak CEYLAN is an Associate Professor of Finance at Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Department of Banking and Finance. Previously, she worked in Atılım University and the Data Processing Center of Vakıfbank as a computer programmer. Her research areas include financial markets and international finance.
Date : Oct 25, 2011 Tuesday
Time : 17:30 - 19:00
Venue: SDE Conference Hall
Please kindly RSVP to 0312 473 80 45 - sde@sde.org.tr
*Language of the seminar is English, translation will not be provided.